Teplice 1-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Teplice at 51%, yet in-form Karviná provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Karviná in Czech Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Teplice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Karviná have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Karviná have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Karviná are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Teplice, 0 for Karviná and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Teplice 2–2 Karviná — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Karviná 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 46% | Karviná 56%). Note also that Karviná surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.73 xG and Karviná 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.999 / defence 1.194 | Karviná attack 0.898 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.069. Karviná's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 35 games and Karviná's last 34.

Result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 24% | Karviná 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.96 | Draw 4.22 | Karviná 3.97. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 40% (last 10 away games).

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