Plzen 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Sigma Olomouc at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 8W 1D 1L at Doosan Aréna — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Plzen have won 3, Sigma Olomouc 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 55% versus Sigma Olomouc 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 63% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.80 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.362 / defence 0.791 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.018 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.029. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Plzen games / 36 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 60% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 16%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Sigma Olomouc 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 30% | Sigma Olomouc 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 60% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Plzen 1.80 / Sigma Olomouc 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.362 / def 0.791 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.018 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Plzen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sigma Olomouc xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 17 September 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 60% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Plzen and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in?
Plzen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.36) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.21
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.62
0.83
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
36.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Plzen and 0.83 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 38 games, going 24W 8D 6L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (13W 9D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 13W 2D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.37 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 63%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 24W 8D 6L in their last 38 games (2.11 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Plzen's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.28 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plzen's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 44%, Sigma Olomouc 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Plzen) and 50% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Plzen's games and 67% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Plzen and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.80 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.83 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.36 / defence 0.79 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 60% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 16%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 63%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.