Slovácko 0-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovácko face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Slovácko welcome FK Jablonec to Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. FK Jablonec's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Slovácko's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour FK Jablonec, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Slovácko.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 2–4 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that FK Jablonec have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 42% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 0.80 xG and FK Jablonec 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.828 / defence 1.077 | FK Jablonec attack 0.934 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.209. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Slovácko games / 36 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 24% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 46%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | FK Jablonec 2.17. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 50% | FK Jablonec 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 24% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Slovácko 0.80 / FK Jablonec 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.828 / def 1.077 | FK Jablonec attack 0.934 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FK Jablonec xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Slovácko 0 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 24% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Slovácko and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
Record (7 meetings): Slovácko 1W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 4W.
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.83) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
24%
4.11
30%
3.36
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.02
1.22
FK Jablonec xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 16.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Slovácko and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.22 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 13D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.83 PPG from 41 outings (22W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slovácko's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.63 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.38 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Slovácko or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slovácko's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovácko
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 38%, FK Jablonec 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovácko) and 43% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 38%; Slovácko have failed to score in 48% of games; FK Jablonec in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovácko's recent matches and 43% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 43% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovácko 0-2 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.80 xG and FK Jablonec 1.22 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against FK Jablonec attack 0.93 / defence 0.71, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 24% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 46%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.