Plzen vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Teplice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Teplice travel to Doosan Arena to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Plzen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Plzen's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Doosan Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Teplice have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.70 PPG, Teplice 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Teplice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Teplice, with 5 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 5–5 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Plzen in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Teplice in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 50% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 58% | Teplice 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.31 xG and Teplice 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.098 / defence 1.182 | Teplice attack 1.161 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Plzen games / 43 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plzen 27% | Draw 27% | Teplice 46%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.17. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

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