Plzen 0-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Plzen welcome Sparta Praha to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 6W 2D 2L at Doosan Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Plzen) versus 2.00 (Sparta Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Sparta Praha, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 56% and Sparta Praha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Sparta Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.300 / defence 1.081 | Sparta Praha attack 1.356 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.125. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Plzen games / 52 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 26% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 48%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 2.08. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 60% | Sparta Praha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 26% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Plzen 1.17 / Sparta Praha 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.300 / def 1.081 | Sparta Praha attack 1.356 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Plzen 0 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Sparta Praha part of?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 26% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Record (8 meetings): Plzen 5W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 2W.
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.30) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
26%
3.78
26%
3.88
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.82
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
19.66
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Plzen and 1.65 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 35W 10D 12L from 57 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 13L across 57 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.02 PPG, Sparta Praha on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 19W 5D 5L from 29 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 16W 5D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.82 scored and 1.18 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 10D 12L in their last 57 games (2.02 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 33W 11D 13L in their last 57 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sparta Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.14 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
3
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 0-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 59%, Sparta Praha 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 59% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Plzen's games and 59% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 59% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Plzen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Plzen and Sparta Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 1.65 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Sparta Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 26% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 48%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.02 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.