Mlada Boleslav 1-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Plzen at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mlada Boleslav stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Plzen have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.80 PPG, Plzen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 70% of Plzen's (from Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Plzen — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Plzen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 57% | Plzen 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mlada Boleslav surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.83 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.266 / defence 0.869 | Plzen attack 1.334 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.158. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack rating of 1.266 — their 1.83 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.334, which lifts their away xG to 1.34. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 45 games and Plzen's last 45.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 23% | Plzen 28%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.04 | Draw 4.38 | Plzen 3.55. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 23% | Plzen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.83 / Plzen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.266 / def 0.869 | Plzen attack 1.334 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Plzen xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 49% chance of winning, Plzen a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.27) and Plzen's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 45 games and Plzen's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.38
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.17
1.34
Plzen xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
5%
22.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.34 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 17W 13D 17L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 24W 8D 15L from 47 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.36 PPG, Plzen on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 22 home games (9W 9D 4L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 4D 8L from their last 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.87 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 62%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Plzen have gone 24W 8D 15L in their last 47 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Plzen away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.64 PPG; Plzen away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Plzen have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won Mlada Boleslav 0-5 Plzen.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 59%, Plzen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mlada Boleslav) and 59% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 59% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 59% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 82% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 1-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.83 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.27 / defence 0.87 against Plzen attack 1.33 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 23% | Plzen 28%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 57%, Plzen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.36 PPG, Plzen 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.