Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Dukla Praha at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 3W 4D 3L at Lokotrans Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lokotrans Arena this season.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Mlada Boleslav have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Dukla Praha 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Dukla Praha 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.42 xG and Dukla Praha 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.060 / defence 0.996 | Dukla Praha attack 0.804 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Mlada Boleslav games / 60 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 47% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 25%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Dukla Praha 4.00. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mlada Boleslav 70% | Dukla Praha 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 3 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 47% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.42 / Dukla Praha 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.060 / def 0.996 | Dukla Praha attack 0.804 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Dukla Praha xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 2 Dukla Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha is a Relegation Group - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 47% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 2W | Draws 1 | Dukla Praha 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.46
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.38
0.96
Dukla Praha xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.96 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 19W 21D 27L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Dukla Praha's form line: 11W 23D 33L from 67 games, 0.84 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.16 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.24 PPG from 34 outings (10W 12D 12L).
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 4W 13D 17L from 34 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.81 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Dukla Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 19W 21D 27L in their last 67 games (1.16 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 11W 23D 33L in their last 67 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Dukla Praha away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.24 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
1
Draws
3
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
From 6 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 56%, Dukla Praha 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Mlada Boleslav) and 41% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 47% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 41% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Relegation Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.42 xG and Dukla Praha 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Dukla Praha attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 47% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 25%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Dukla Praha 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.16 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.