Hradec Králové vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Teplice — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Teplice — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Hradec Králové hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Teplice, with 1 draws in between.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Teplice trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Teplice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.74 xG and Teplice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / defence 0.902 | Teplice attack 0.954 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 35 Hradec Králové games / 36 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 25% | Teplice 24%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Teplice 4.17. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Hradec Králové dominate the H2H record, yet Teplice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 25% | Teplice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Hradec Králové 1.74 / Teplice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / def 0.902 | Teplice attack 0.954 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Teplice xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at FINEP Arena.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 52% chance of winning, Teplice a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Hradec Králové 7W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.11x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.05
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.85
1.11
Teplice xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
4%
23.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.11 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 19W 9D 13L from 41 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 14L across 41 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.61 PPG, Teplice on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Teplice's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.32 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 games (1.61 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.15 PPG; Teplice away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Teplice in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Teplice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hradec Králové's games and 60% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Teplice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.