FK Jablonec 0-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FK Jablonec at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sigma Olomouc away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 2 for Sigma Olomouc and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended FK Jablonec 0–0 Sigma Olomouc — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 52% versus Sigma Olomouc 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Sigma Olomouc 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.338 / defence 0.817 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.121 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.123. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack rating of 1.338 — their 1.68 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 56 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 56.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 52% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.93 | Draw 3.89 | Sigma Olomouc 4.47. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 52% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.68 / Sigma Olomouc 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.338 / def 0.817 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.121 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 52% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.12x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 56 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.89
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.71
1.03
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
23.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.03 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 21W 17D 20L from 58 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 25L across 58 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.29 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 15W 8D 6L from their last 29 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.41 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 67%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 games (1.38 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 12D 25L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.83 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.14 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 4-0 Sigma Olomouc on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 52%, Sigma Olomouc 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FK Jablonec's games and 66% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 83% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 27, as FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 52% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.38 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.