Bohemians 1905 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians 1905 face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bohemians 1905 at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 2–1 Teplice — a Bohemians 1905 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 53% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 50% | Teplice 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians 1905 surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.18 xG and Teplice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.816 / defence 1.109 | Teplice attack 0.837 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.111. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 56 games and Teplice's last 56.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 32% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.63 | Draw 3.17 | Teplice 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 32% | Teplice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.18 / Teplice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.816 / def 1.109 | Teplice attack 0.837 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Teplice xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 38% chance of winning, Teplice a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.84x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 56 games and Teplice's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.17
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.21
1.03
Teplice xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.03 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 16W 21D 23L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.18 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 11D 11L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 6D 17L from their last 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.07 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 21D 23L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Teplice have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Teplice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.17 PPG; Teplice away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won Teplice 3-0 Bohemians 1905 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 47%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bohemians 1905) and 53% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 43% of games; Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Teplice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 57% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 53% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 53% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 27, as Bohemians 1905 and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.18 xG and Teplice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Teplice attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 32% | Teplice 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.15 PPG, Teplice 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.