Bohemians 1905 1-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bohemians 1905 face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Praha have the stronger record — 4 wins to Bohemians 1905's 0, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 1–3 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 53% versus Sparta Praha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Sparta Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG and Sparta Praha 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / defence 0.949 | Sparta Praha attack 1.467 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.120. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.467, which lifts their away xG to 1.56. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 33 games and Sparta Praha's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.20 | Draw 4.03 | Sparta Praha 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 50% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Bohemians 1905 33 games, Sparta Praha 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.28 / Sparta Praha 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / def 0.949 | Sparta Praha attack 1.467 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sparta Praha xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.47x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 33 games and Sparta Praha's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
31%
3.20
25%
4.03
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.56
Sparta Praha xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.56 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 13D 15L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 30W 6D 2L from 38 games, 2.53 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 18 home games (6W 6D 6L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 14W 2D 2L from their last 18 away games — 2.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.37 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 30W 6D 2L in their last 38 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.33 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Bohemians 1905 2-6 Sparta Praha on 12 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Bohemians 1905 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 44%, Sparta Praha 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 67% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 33%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 61% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 67% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 72% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG and Sparta Praha 1.56 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.47 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 44%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.