Dukla Praha 0-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 36%, yet in-form FK Jablonec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees FK Jablonec travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FK Jablonec are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dukla Praha 33% | FK Jablonec 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dukla Praha 33% | FK Jablonec 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and FK Jablonec 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.857 / defence 1.211 | FK Jablonec attack 0.859 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.099. Data: 3 Dukla Praha games / 33 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 36% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 35%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | FK Jablonec 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dukla Praha are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 33% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 36% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Dukla Praha 1.16 / FK Jablonec 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.857 / def 1.211 | FK Jablonec attack 0.859 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FK Jablonec xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Dukla Praha 0 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 36% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.86) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.53
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.30
1.14
FK Jablonec xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.14 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 1.00 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.67 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 0%.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Dukla Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dukla Praha's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Dukla Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FK Jablonec see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dukla Praha 33% BTTS, FK Jablonec 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Dukla Praha and 0% for FK Jablonec.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 67%; Dukla Praha have failed to score in 33% of games; FK Jablonec in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 0% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 0% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and FK Jablonec 1.14 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against FK Jablonec attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 36% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 35%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 33%, FK Jablonec 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 1.00 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.