Baník Ostrava 3-0 Táborsko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation - Final as Baník Ostrava welcome Táborsko to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Baník Ostrava at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.41 xG and Táborsko 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.889 / defence 1.088 | Táborsko attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 60 Baník Ostrava games / 0 Táborsko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 43% | Draw 29% | Táborsko 29%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Táborsko 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation - Final | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 43% | Draw 29% | Táborsko 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.41 / Táborsko 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.889 / def 1.088 | Táborsko attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Táborsko xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 26 May 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko?
Baník Ostrava 3 - 0 Táborsko.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko is a Relegation - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 43% chance of winning, Táborsko a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Táborsko will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Táborsko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Táborsko in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Baník Ostrava home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Táborsko's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Táborsko's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.51
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.52
1.11
Táborsko xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
7%
14.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Táborsko expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.11 for Táborsko, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Táborsko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Pre-Season
Táborsko
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Táborsko runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
0
Táborsko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Táborsko?
From 2 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 2, Táborsko have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Táborsko last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Táborsko 0-5 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Táborsko?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Táborsko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Táborsko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Táborsko 3-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Relegation - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.41 xG and Táborsko 1.11 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Táborsko landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Táborsko attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 43% | Draw 29% | Táborsko 29%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.