Baník Ostrava 4-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 5W 1D 2L from 8 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 2.12. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.88 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.12. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Bohemians 1905 in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 62% and Bohemians 1905 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baník Ostrava 62% | Bohemians 1905 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.03 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.218 / defence 1.009 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.969 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.263. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Baník Ostrava games / 8 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 23%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Bohemians 1905 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 67% | Bohemians 1905 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.03 / Bohemians 1905 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.218 / def 1.009 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.969 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bohemians 1905 xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava 4 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 56% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 2.12 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
56%
1.79
21%
4.68
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.27
1.24
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
3%
33.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.24 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 5W 1D 2L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Baník Ostrava are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.62 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 3.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 67%, Bohemians 1905 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Baník Ostrava and 100% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Baník Ostrava's games and 67% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 100% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Bohemians 1905 4-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.03 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.24 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 23%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 62%, Bohemians 1905 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.