Yunnan Yukun 2-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 38%, yet in-form Tianjin Teda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to face Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Tianjin Teda arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 77% and Tianjin Teda 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 58% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.58 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.916 / defence 1.291 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.399. Data: 26 Yunnan Yukun games / 56 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 36%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Tianjin Teda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 90% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.58 / Tianjin Teda 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.916 / def 1.291 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Tianjin Teda xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda?
Yunnan Yukun 2 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 38% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 0.92x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.85x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
38%
2.62
25%
3.94
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.12
1.54
Tianjin Teda xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.54 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Yunnan Yukun have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 8W 8D 10L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 12W 7D 7L from 26 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yunnan Yukun.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Yunnan Yukun have posted 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 4D 5L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tianjin Teda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.69 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Yunnan Yukun or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yunnan Yukun have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Tianjin Teda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 0-3 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Yunnan Yukun, 69% for Tianjin Teda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Yunnan Yukun) and 62% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 69% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 62% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.58 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.54 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.92 / defence 1.29 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 36%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 58%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Yunnan Yukun winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.