Wuhan Zall 0-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wuhan Zall welcome Meizhou Kejia to Dongxihu Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 4 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 1D 9L — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Zall at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Meizhou Kejia stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Meizhou Kejia's 1.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Wuhan Zall, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Aug 2022, ended Wuhan Zall 1–2 Meizhou Kejia — a Meizhou Kejia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 59% versus Meizhou Kejia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Zall 77% | Meizhou Kejia 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Wuhan Zall surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Meizhou Kejia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.41 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.757 / defence 1.515 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.720 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.311. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.41. Meizhou Kejia's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Zall's projected output up. Meizhou Kejia's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.515 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Meizhou Kejia's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Zall's last 36 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 22.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 37% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 38%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.71 | Draw 3.95 | Meizhou Kejia 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Zall's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Zall 70% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 4 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 37% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Wuhan Zall 1.41 / Meizhou Kejia 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.757 / def 1.515 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.720 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Meizhou Kejia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Friday 4 November 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia?
Wuhan Zall 0 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 37% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wuhan Zall's attack at 0.76x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Zall's last 36 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
37%
2.71
25%
3.95
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.84
1.43
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.43 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Zall come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 2D 15L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Meizhou Kejia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wuhan Zall's home form reads 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 10 away games (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.45 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Wuhan Zall (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 5W 2D 15L in their last 22 games (0.77 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Meizhou Kejia's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 0.50 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 4 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2022: Wuhan Zall 0-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 70%, Meizhou Kejia 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Wuhan Zall and 30% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall have failed to score in 30% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 30% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 30% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 70% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wuhan Zall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia finished level at 0-0 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.41 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.43 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wuhan Zall fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.76 / defence 1.51 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.72 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 37% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 38%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 77%, Meizhou Kejia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.