Beijing Guoan 2-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 36%, yet in-form Beijing Guoan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye meet at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 4D 1L at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Beijing Guoan's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Beijing Guoan 0W, Henan Jianye 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Henan Jianye 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 54% | Henan Jianye 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.22 xG and Henan Jianye 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.209 / defence 1.054 | Henan Jianye attack 0.891 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.311. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.695 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Beijing Guoan games / 36 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 36% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 50% | Henan Jianye 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 36% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.22 / Henan Jianye 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.209 / def 1.054 | Henan Jianye attack 0.891 / def 0.695 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 36% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.89x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.62
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.45
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.23 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 19W 13D 12L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye's form line: 19W 13D 12L from 44 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.59 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (9W 9D 2L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 8D 7L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.27 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Henan Jianye away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.80 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 65%, Henan Jianye 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Beijing Guoan and 20% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 50%; Henan Jianye in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 20% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 20% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.22 xG and Henan Jianye 1.23 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.21 / defence 1.05 against Henan Jianye attack 0.89 / defence 0.69, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 36% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 36%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 54%, Henan Jianye 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.59 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.