Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Henan Jianye travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 1 for Henan Jianye and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 64% versus Henan Jianye 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Henan Jianye 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.13 xG and Henan Jianye 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.766 / defence 0.982 | Henan Jianye attack 0.872 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.368. Wuhan Three Towns's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Wuhan Three Towns games / 56 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 35% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 37%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns dominate the H2H record, yet Henan Jianye are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Henan Jianye 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 35% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.13 / Henan Jianye 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.766 / def 0.982 | Henan Jianye attack 0.872 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Henan Jianye xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 35% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
Record (5 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 3W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.53
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.30
1.17
Henan Jianye xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.17 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 16D 19L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.25 PPG from 56 outings (18W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 1.41 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (5W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.25 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Henan Jianye away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.37 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Henan Jianye 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 48% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 33% of games; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 52% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 48% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.13 xG and Henan Jianye 1.17 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Henan Jianye attack 0.87 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 35% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 37%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Henan Jianye 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.41 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.