Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Changchun Yatai at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Changchun Yatai 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Changchun Yatai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 56% | Changchun Yatai 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.46 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.881 / defence 0.590 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.669 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.818 / away 1.395. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.590 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Tianjin Teda games / 57 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 58% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 13%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.72 | Draw 3.45 | Changchun Yatai 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Changchun Yatai's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 20% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 58% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 34% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.46 / Changchun Yatai 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.881 / def 0.590 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.669 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.818 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Changchun Yatai xG
34%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 58% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 13% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Record (9 meetings): Tianjin Teda 3W | Draws 5 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.88) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 2-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
58%
1.71
29%
3.46
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.01
0.55
Changchun Yatai xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
3%
33.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.55 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 24W 13D 20L from 57 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 31L across 57 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 3W 6D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.23 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 13D 20L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 12W 14D 31L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.89 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
6
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 39%, Changchun Yatai 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 64% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 61% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 64% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai finished level at 2-2 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.46 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.55 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 0.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.88 / defence 0.59 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.67 / defence 0.91, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 58% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 13%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 56%, Changchun Yatai 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.