Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L at Shenzhen Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Beijing Guoan arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Beijing Guoan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.290 / defence 1.279 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.980 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.158. Sichuan Jiuniu carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 36 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 31%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 3.23. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Sichuan Jiuniu dominate the H2H record, yet Beijing Guoan are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Beijing Guoan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 / Beijing Guoan 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.290 / def 1.279 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.980 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beijing Guoan xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Sichuan Jiuniu 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 47% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 3W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 1.29x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.98x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.42
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.29
1.45
Beijing Guoan xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.45 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 15W 11D 34L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 13W 9D 8L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.20 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-0 on 7 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 67%, Beijing Guoan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 60% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 60% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.29 / defence 1.28 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 31%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Beijing Guoan 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.