Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Cangzhou Stadium to face Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 22 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 3W 2D 5L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Shanghai Shenhua arrive in superior form — a 2.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shanghai Shenhua, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 0–4 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
It is worth noting that Shanghai Shenhua have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% versus Shanghai Shenhua 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.71 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.745 / defence 1.119 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.983 / defence 0.549. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.302. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.549 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 49 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 53%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.89. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.71 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.745 / def 1.119 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.983 / def 0.549 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Shanghai Shenhua xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 22 July 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 17% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (7 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 4W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.74x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.98x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
17%
5.78
29%
3.39
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.14
1.43
Shanghai Shenhua xG
5.78
17%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
4%
24.20
26%
3.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.8 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.43 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 12W 12D 25L from 49 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 30W 11D 8L across 49 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 6D 10L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 14W 5D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.59 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 30W 11D 8L in their last 49 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.25 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 0-5 on 22 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58%, Shanghai Shenhua 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 42% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 46%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 42% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.71 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.43 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.43 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.74 / defence 1.12 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.98 / defence 0.55, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 53%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%, Shanghai Shenhua 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.