Shenyang Urban 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tiexi Stadium plays host to Shenyang Urban versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.64 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 1.032 / defence 1.003 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.142 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.908 / away 1.153. Data: 3 Shenyang Urban games / 33 Beijing Guoan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 45% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 31%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 3.23. Shenyang Urban hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shenyang Urban as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 45% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.64 / Beijing Guoan 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 1.032 / def 1.003 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.142 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.908 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan?
Shenyang Urban 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 45% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Beijing Guoan in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Beijing Guoan away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shenyang Urban's attack at 1.03x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.14x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.14
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.96
1.32
Beijing Guoan xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.32 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shenyang Urban
1
Draws
0
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Beijing Guoan?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Beijing Guoan?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shenyang Urban edge out Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenyang Urban beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.64 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.32 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.83, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 45% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 31%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.