SHANGHAI SIPG 8-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Nantong Zhiyun.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 26 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nantong Zhiyun's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward SHANGHAI SIPG. A 2.40 PPG lead over Nantong Zhiyun (3.00 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Nantong Zhiyun in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Historically, SHANGHAI SIPG have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Nantong Zhiyun managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The historical record gives SHANGHAI SIPG a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% versus Nantong Zhiyun 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 66% | Nantong Zhiyun 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 3.54 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.696 / defence 0.871 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.060 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.339. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.696 — their λ of 3.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nantong Zhiyun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 50 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Draw 12% | Nantong Zhiyun 9%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.25 | Draw 8.33 | Nantong Zhiyun 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (80%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 86% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 86% — a total xG of 4.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (3.54 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.78 combined xG gives a 86% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Nantong Zhiyun 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Draw 12% | Nantong Zhiyun 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 86% | BTTS 69% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 3.54 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.696 / def 0.871 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.060 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.54
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Nantong Zhiyun xG
69%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 26 July 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
SHANGHAI SIPG 8 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 80% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 9% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 86%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (3 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.70) and Nantong Zhiyun's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 3.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (1.06x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.7%. Close behind: 4-1 (6.8%), 2-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
80%
1.26
12%
8.42
9%
11.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.8%
Home win
2 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.54
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
4.78
1.24
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.26
80%
Home win
8.42
12%
Draw
11.66
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
86%
Over 2.5
1.16
14%
Under 2.5
7.14
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
52%
Over 4.5
1.92
48%
Under 4.5
2.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
3%
34.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 3.54 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.24 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 4.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 36W 9D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun's form line: 7W 15D 28L from 50 games, 0.72 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.24 PPG from 25 outings (17W 5D 3L).
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 9D 12L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.92 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 36W 9D 5L in their last 50 games (2.34 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 15D 28L in their last 50 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.24 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.84 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Nantong Zhiyun been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nantong Zhiyun in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 8-1 on 26 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2024, when SHANGHAI SIPG 8-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 72% for Nantong Zhiyun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 44% (Nantong Zhiyun). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 72% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 44% of Nantong Zhiyun's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 8-1 hammering of Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Nantong Zhiyun 8-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 3.54 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.24 xG, a combined 4.78. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.70 / defence 0.87 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.06 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Draw 12% | Nantong Zhiyun 9%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 86%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 66%, Nantong Zhiyun 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.