Shanghai Shenhua 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shanghai Shenhua face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. meet at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shanghai Shenhua at Shanghai Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Shanghai Shenhua's favour (1.70 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 3W, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 52% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.46 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.237 / defence 0.814 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.057 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.418. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Shanghai Shenhua games / 38 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 64% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 64% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 65% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.46 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.237 / def 0.814 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.057 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shanghai Shenhua 4 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 64% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (6 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 3W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.46. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (1.06x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.37
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.68
1.22
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
9%
11.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
1%
68.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.22 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 29W 18D 17L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 1.75 PPG from 32 outings (16W 8D 8L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 11W 6D 15L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 29W 18D 17L in their last 64 games (1.64 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.75 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 0-5 on 22 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 66% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 66% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.46 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.06 / defence 1.47, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 64% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 38%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.