Nantong Zhiyun 0-5 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Nantong Zhiyun welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.712 / defence 0.975 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.276 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.288. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Nantong Zhiyun games / 42 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 13% | Draw 32% | Wuhan Three Towns 55%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 7.69 | Draw 3.12 | Wuhan Three Towns 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (55%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 13% | Draw 32% | Wuhan Three Towns 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.712 / def 0.975 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.276 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Wuhan Three Towns xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 13% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 55% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
13%
7.41
32%
3.16
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.33
1.60
Wuhan Three Towns xG
7.41
13%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
3%
36.79
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 15.5 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.60 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nantong Zhiyun
0
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-5 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.71 / defence 0.97 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.28 / defence 0.80, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 13% | Draw 32% | Wuhan Three Towns 55%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.