Meizhou Kejia 4-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. make the trip to Wuhua Hengpi Football Town to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 June 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 0W, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.17 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.946 / defence 1.183 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.977 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.121. Data: 6 Meizhou Kejia games / 20 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 32% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jun 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 32% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.17 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.946 / def 1.183 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.977 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 29 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Meizhou Kejia 4 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 31% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.95x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.98x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 6/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.17
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.46
1.29
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.29 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won 4-1 on 29 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
2
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Meizhou Kejia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-1 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.17 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.29 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 6/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 32% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Meizhou Kejia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.