Meizhou Kejia 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Meizhou Kejia face Qingdao Youth Island.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Meizhou Kejia at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.50 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.791 / defence 1.016 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.911 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.366. Meizhou Kejia's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 1.399 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Meizhou Kejia's projected output up. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 37 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 8.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 43% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.35 | Draw 3.95 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 43% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.50 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.791 / def 1.016 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.911 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Qingdao Youth Island xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island FAQs
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 43% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.79x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.91x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Meizhou Kejia's last 37 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.95
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.76
1.26
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.26 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Meizhou Kejia (Home) vs Qingdao Youth Island (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Qingdao Youth Island have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.50 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.26 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 37/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 43% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.