Qingdao Jonoon 0-5 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host SHANGHAI SIPG at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Qingdao Jonoon) versus 1.40 (SHANGHAI SIPG). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2023, ended 0–5 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.867 / defence 0.856 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.351. Data: 38 Qingdao Jonoon games / 37 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 26% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.22. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 26% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.867 / def 0.856 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.33
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 26% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.87x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
26%
3.79
28%
3.51
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.28
1.33
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.33 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 5L across 30 games — 2.10 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 11W 2D 2L across 15 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 19W 6D 5L in their last 30 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.60 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Qingdao Jonoon and 60% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 53%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 60% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-5 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.33 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.33 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 26% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, SHANGHAI SIPG 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.