Henan Jianye 3-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022, 08:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.10 PPG versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 40% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 36% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.59 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.112 / defence 0.970 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.308 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.316. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Henan Jianye games / 34 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Henan Jianye 1.59 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.112 / def 0.970 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.308 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 08:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye 3 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 36% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.11) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
36%
2.76
24%
4.15
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.26
1.67
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.67 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 17W 13D 12L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 11W 13D 18L from 42 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.17 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 17W 13D 12L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.10 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Henan Jianye and 70% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Henan Jianye's games and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Henan Jianye's matches and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-0 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.59 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.67 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.31 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 36%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.