Henan Jianye 2-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Yuexiushan Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 July 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 1W 5D 2L from 8 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Yuexiushan Stadium: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Super League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 1W 3D 4L from 8 outings — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.00 PPG versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 0.75. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Henan Jianye, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 62% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.27 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.019 / defence 0.963 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.771 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.172. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Henan Jianye games / 8 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 37% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.38 | Draw 2.70 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 75% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jul 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 37% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Henan Jianye 1.27 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.019 / def 0.963 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.771 / def 1.274 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 27 July 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye 2 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 42% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 1W-5D-2L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.02) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
42%
2.39
37%
2.73
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.14
0.87
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.87 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 5D 2L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.00 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 1W 5D 2L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.25 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Henan Jianye at 75%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Henan Jianye) and 75% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Henan Jianye's games and 75% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 75% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.27 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.87 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.77 / defence 1.27, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 37% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 25%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.00 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.