Henan Jianye 2-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Henan Jianye face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Henan Jianye at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chengdu Better City are 0.60 PPG clear of Henan Jianye over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Chengdu Better City, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2024, ended Henan Jianye 2–4 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 53% versus Chengdu Better City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 46% | Chengdu Better City 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.718 / defence 0.937 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.199 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.801 / away 1.357. Henan Jianye's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Chengdu Better City bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Henan Jianye's projected output down. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 55 games and Chengdu Better City's last 55.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 25% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 49%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.93 | Draw 3.89 | Chengdu Better City 2.05. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 50% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 25% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.02 / Chengdu Better City 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.718 / def 0.937 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.199 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.801 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Chengdu Better City xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Henan Jianye 2 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 25% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.72) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.20x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 55 games and Chengdu Better City's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
25%
3.93
26%
3.89
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.55
1.52
Chengdu Better City xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
6%
18.05
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.52 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 16D 22L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.91 PPG from 55 outings (31W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 12W 8D 8L across their last 28 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 28 away games (13W 7D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 31W 12D 12L in their last 55 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.57 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 3-0 Henan Jianye on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 3, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Henan Jianye 0-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Chengdu Better City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Henan Jianye) and 54% (Chengdu Better City).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Henan Jianye's games and 57% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 54% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 79% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chengdu Better City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Chengdu Better City 2-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.52 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chengdu Better City landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.72 / defence 0.94 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.20 / defence 0.79, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 25% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 49%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 46%, Chengdu Better City 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.