Chengdu Better City 2-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park plays host to Chengdu Better City versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chengdu Better City have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Chengdu Better City have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 0.90 PPG lead over Beijing Guoan (2.30 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 52% versus Beijing Guoan 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 61% | Beijing Guoan 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.37 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.368 / defence 0.759 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.912 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.794 / away 1.317. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Chengdu Better City games / 54 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 17% | Beijing Guoan 13%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Beijing Guoan 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Beijing Guoan lead the H2H ledger, but Chengdu Better City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 40% | Beijing Guoan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 17% | Beijing Guoan 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.37 / Beijing Guoan 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.368 / def 0.759 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.912 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.794 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Beijing Guoan xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 70% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan?
Record (5 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.37) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.91x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.73
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.28
0.91
Beijing Guoan xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
1%
84.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.91 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 54 games, going 31W 11D 12L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.72 PPG from 54 outings (26W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.72 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 18W 4D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.76 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 61%.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 31W 11D 12L in their last 54 games (1.93 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 15D 13L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.23 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Chengdu Better City
4
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Chengdu Better City 2-2 Beijing Guoan.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 46%, Beijing Guoan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Chengdu Better City) and 50% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Beijing Guoan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 58% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 50% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan finished level at 2-2 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.37 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.91 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.37 / defence 0.76 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 17% | Beijing Guoan 13%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 61%, Beijing Guoan 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.93 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.