Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 7W 2D 1L at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hangzhou Greentown are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 56% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 0.92 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.918 / defence 0.813 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.272 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.358. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Hangzhou Greentown games / 36 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 24% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 48%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 2.08. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Tianjin Teda 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 24% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 0.92 / Tianjin Teda 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.918 / def 0.813 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.272 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Tianjin Teda xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 24% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.92x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
24%
4.10
28%
3.60
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.33
1.40
Tianjin Teda xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.40 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 33W 18D 12L from 63 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 25W 22D 16L across 63 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.86 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 19W 6D 6L from 31 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 13W 8D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 games (1.86 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.03 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 39%, Tianjin Teda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 39% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 39% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Tianjin Teda 3-2 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 0.92 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.27 / defence 0.76, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 24% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 48%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Hangzhou Greentown win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 56%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.