Hangzhou Greentown 1-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 26 April 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 7W 2D 1L at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Hangzhou Greentown have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Beijing Guoan managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hangzhou Greentown and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 56% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Beijing Guoan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 0.93 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.052 / defence 0.877 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.936 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.358. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Hangzhou Greentown games / 37 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 39%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Beijing Guoan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Beijing Guoan 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 0.93 / Beijing Guoan 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.052 / def 0.877 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.936 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Beijing Guoan xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 30% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.05x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.94x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.22
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Beijing Guoan xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.11 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 33W 18D 12L from 63 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 16L across 63 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.73 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 19W 6D 6L from 31 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 14W 8D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.73 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 games (1.86 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 16L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.03 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 39%, Beijing Guoan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 64% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 61% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 64% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Hangzhou Greentown 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-2 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 0.93 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.94 / defence 0.64, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 39%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 56%, Beijing Guoan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.