Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC meet at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.14 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 7 home games (86%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Hangzhou Greentown. A 1.40 PPG lead over Guangzhou Evergrande FC (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in just 0% of their matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 38% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 19% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.997 / defence 0.673 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.702 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.281. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 Hangzhou Greentown games / 29 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 26% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 0% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 26% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 38% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.997 / def 0.673 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.702 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
38%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 1 September 2022 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 62% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.00x the league average against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.70x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 14/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
62%
1.60
26%
3.91
12%
8.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.28
0.60
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
8.26
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
34%
2.94
2%
43.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.60 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 6D 3L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC sit at 0.62 PPG from 16 outings (3W 1D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 0.69 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 1D 12L in their last 16 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.00 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-5 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 43% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 57% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 86% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 43% of games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 43% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 57% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-0 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.60 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 0.67 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.20, drawn from 14/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 26% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 12%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 19%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.