Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Puwan Stadium plays host to Guangzhou Evergrande FC versus Wuhan Zall in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 11 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Puwan Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Puwan Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Puwan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Zall's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Zall have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Guangzhou Evergrande FC's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Wuhan Zall half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% versus Wuhan Zall 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Wuhan Zall 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.08 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.871 / defence 0.974 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.976 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.114. Data: 16 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 16 Wuhan Zall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 34%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Wuhan Zall 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% | Wuhan Zall 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (16 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.08 / Wuhan Zall 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.871 / def 0.974 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.976 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Wuhan Zall xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 11 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 35% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.98x) against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (16/16 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.27
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.14
1.06
Wuhan Zall xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.06 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC come into this having played 22 games, going 13W 5D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wuhan Zall sit at 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (3W 11D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home form reads 8W 3D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wuhan Zall have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (1W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.05 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 64%.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 games (2.00 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 11D 8L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
2
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, Wuhan Zall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when Wuhan Zall 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46%, Wuhan Zall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 36% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 46% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 36% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wuhan Zall defy the odds to beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.08 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.06 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 16/16 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 34%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Wuhan Zall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%, Wuhan Zall 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Wuhan Zall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.