Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Hebei Zhongji at Tianhe Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 6W 1D 0L at Tianhe Stadium — 2.71 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Tianhe Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Super League this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 53% versus Hebei Zhongji 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 60% | Hebei Zhongji 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.78 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.376 / defence 1.057 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.700 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 14 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 55% | Draw 27% | Hebei Zhongji 18%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Hebei Zhongji 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Guangzhou Evergrande FC (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 57% | Hebei Zhongji 29%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 55% | Draw 27% | Hebei Zhongji 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.78 / Hebei Zhongji 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.376 / def 1.057 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.700 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hebei Zhongji xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 10:00 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 55% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.70
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.73
0.95
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
33.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0.95 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 9W 3D 3L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 6W 5D 4L from 15 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.80 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.71 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guangzhou Evergrande FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 0-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 57%, Hebei Zhongji 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 29% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 43%; Hebei Zhongji in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 29% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 29% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tianhe Stadium, Championship Round - 2, as Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.78 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.95 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.38 / defence 1.06 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 55% | Draw 27% | Hebei Zhongji 18%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 60%, Hebei Zhongji 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.