Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Puwan Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 4W 3D 3L at Puwan Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dalian Aerbin. A 1.20 PPG lead over Hebei Zhongji (1.20 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dalian Aerbin lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Hebei Zhongji winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 49% versus Hebei Zhongji 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 46% | Hebei Zhongji 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 2.75 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.166 / defence 0.994 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.660 / defence 1.654. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.224. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.654 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Dalian Aerbin games / 31 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 77% | Draw 15% | Hebei Zhongji 8%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Hebei Zhongji 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 60% | Hebei Zhongji 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 77% | Draw 15% | Hebei Zhongji 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 52% | xG Dalian Aerbin 2.75 / Hebei Zhongji 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.166 / def 0.994 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.660 / def 1.654 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Hebei Zhongji xG
52%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 77% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 2W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (1.17) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.66x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 29/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.73
8%
13.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.55
0.80
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.73
15%
Draw
13.02
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
6%
15.67
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.80 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 10W 8D 21L from 39 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 25L across 39 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.72 for Hebei Zhongji. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 2W 3D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.64 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 10W 8D 21L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 25L in their last 39 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.16 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Dalian Aerbin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 1-4 on 30 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
2
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 1-4 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 47%, Hebei Zhongji 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Dalian Aerbin) and 53% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 32% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 37% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 53% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Hebei Zhongji 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 2.75 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.80 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.66 / defence 1.65, drawn from 29/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 77% | Draw 15% | Hebei Zhongji 8%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 46%, Hebei Zhongji 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 0.97 PPG, Hebei Zhongji 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.