Changchun Yatai 1-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai host Wuhan Three Towns at Changchun's People Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 20 September 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Changchun's People Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 2D 0L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wuhan Three Towns — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 69% and Wuhan Three Towns 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Changchun Yatai 56% | Wuhan Three Towns 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.89 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.894 / defence 0.930 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.307 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.226. Wuhan Three Towns's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Changchun Yatai games / 16 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 21% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Three Towns 50%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.00. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 70% | Wuhan Three Towns 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Sep 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 21% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Three Towns 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.89 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.894 / def 0.930 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.307 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Wuhan Three Towns xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 10:30 on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 21% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.89x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
21%
4.76
29%
3.44
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.38
1.49
Wuhan Three Towns xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
21.17
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.8 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.49 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 4W 8D 4L from 16 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 14W 2D 0L across 16 games — 2.75 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 6W 1D 0L across 7 trips, a 2.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 3.25 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 8D 4L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 2D 0L in their last 16 (2.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.00 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.71 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 71%, Wuhan Three Towns 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Changchun Yatai) and 71% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 43%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Changchun Yatai's games and 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 71% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.89 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.49 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.31 / defence 0.70, drawn from 29/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 21% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Three Towns 50%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Wuhan Three Towns 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.