Changchun Yatai 5-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Qingdao Jonoon.

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Match Analysis

Changchun Yatai host Qingdao Jonoon at Changchun Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 30 June 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Qingdao Jonoon away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Changchun Yatai) versus 0.90 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 8 Mar 2024, ended Changchun Yatai 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon — a Changchun Yatai win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.14 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.886 / defence 1.024 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.659 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.388. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 46 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 46.

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 29%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.52 | Draw 3.22 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 80% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 away games).

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