Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wuhan Three Towns (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wuhan Three Towns face Nantong Zhiyun.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Nantong Zhiyun travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 June 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantong Zhiyun stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nantong Zhiyun away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Wuhan Three Towns have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Nantong Zhiyun have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wuhan Three Towns and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 67% and Nantong Zhiyun 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 53% | Nantong Zhiyun 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.684 / defence 0.915 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.029 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.399. Wuhan Three Towns's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nantong Zhiyun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Wuhan Three Towns games / 46 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 36%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Nantong Zhiyun 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Nantong Zhiyun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.684 / def 0.915 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.029 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Nantong Zhiyun xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 June 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 37% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (3 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 3W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.68x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.65
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.67
1.32
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.32 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 16L across 30 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantong Zhiyun heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 7W 5D 3L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.87 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.73 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
1
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Nantong Zhiyun 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 33% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantong Zhiyun defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.68 / defence 0.92 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 36%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nantong Zhiyun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Nantong Zhiyun 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Nantong Zhiyun winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.