Beijing Guoan 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beijing Guoan face Qingdao Youth Island.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Beijing Guoan welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Beijing Workers' Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 3D 1L at Beijing Workers' Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Beijing Guoan have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Beijing Guoan: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Qingdao Youth Island, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Beijing Guoan and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 63% and Qingdao Youth Island 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Qingdao Youth Island 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.76 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.097 / defence 0.971 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.885 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.418. Data: 57 Beijing Guoan games / 57 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 49% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.00. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 49% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.76 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.097 / def 0.971 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.885 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Qingdao Youth Island xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 49% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (5 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.86
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.98
1.22
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
4%
23.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.22 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 29W 16D 12L from 57 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 15L across 57 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Youth Island heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 16W 6D 6L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 7W 11D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.23 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 29W 16D 12L in their last 57 games (1.81 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 24D 15L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.93 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 71%, Qingdao Youth Island at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Beijing Guoan and 50% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Beijing Guoan's games and 61% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.76 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.22 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 49% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.