Vancouver FC 1-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 13 October 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC's home record at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Valour (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Valour are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Vancouver FC 3W, Valour 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 56% versus Valour 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 59% | Valour 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.15 xG and Valour 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.757 / defence 1.184 | Valour attack 1.105 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.182. Vancouver FC's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Vancouver FC games / 54 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 28% | Valour 45%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Valour 2.22. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Vancouver FC dominate the H2H record, yet Valour are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 40% | Valour 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Oct 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 28% | Valour 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Vancouver FC 1.15 / Valour 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.757 / def 1.184 | Valour attack 1.105 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Valour (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Valour xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Valour kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Valour kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 13 October 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Vancouver FC 1 - 1 Valour.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Valour part of?
Vancouver FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 27% chance of winning, Valour a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vancouver FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
Record (5 meetings): Vancouver FC 3W | Draws 1 | Valour 1W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Valour in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Valour (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 0.76x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.10x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
27%
3.73
28%
3.54
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.55
Valour xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.55 for Valour, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 12D 27L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 0.98 PPG from 54 outings (13W 14D 27L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Vancouver FC against 0.98 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vancouver FC's home form reads 9W 6D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (5W 8D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 15W 12D 27L in their last 54 games (1.06 PPG), while Valour have gone 13W 14D 27L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Valour away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.22 PPG; Valour away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 6 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Valour go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 4-1 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Vancouver FC
2
Draws
4
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 4, Valour have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2025, when Vancouver FC 2-5 Valour.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Valour see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 56%, Valour 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Vancouver FC) and 52% (Valour). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Valour in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vancouver FC's games and 59% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Vancouver FC's matches and 52% of Valour's.
Do Vancouver FC and Valour tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Valour in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vancouver FC and Valour share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC and Valour finished level at 1-1 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.15 xG and Valour 1.55 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Valour attack 1.10 / defence 1.12, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 28% | Valour 45%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 59%, Valour 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.06 PPG, Valour 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.