HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates HFX Wanderers FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wanderers Grounds plays host to HFX Wanderers FC versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 4W 2D 2L at Wanderers Grounds — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for HFX Wanderers FC, 1.00 for FC Edmonton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: HFX Wanderers FC 1W, FC Edmonton 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with FC Edmonton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 56% versus FC Edmonton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 44% | FC Edmonton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.61 xG and FC Edmonton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.172 / defence 1.265 | FC Edmonton attack 0.945 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.067. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing HFX Wanderers FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 HFX Wanderers FC games / 18 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 44% | Draw 26% | FC Edmonton 30%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | FC Edmonton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is HFX Wanderers FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on HFX Wanderers FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 62% | FC Edmonton 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 44% | Draw 26% | FC Edmonton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.61 / FC Edmonton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.172 / def 1.265 | FC Edmonton attack 0.945 / def 1.381 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
FC Edmonton xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 0 FC Edmonton.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 44% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (2 meetings): HFX Wanderers FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.94x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.87
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.28
FC Edmonton xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.28 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 7D 6L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.00 PPG from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.00 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HFX Wanderers FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.06 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
HFX Wanderers FC
1
Draws
2
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 62%, FC Edmonton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for HFX Wanderers FC and 62% for FC Edmonton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Edmonton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of HFX Wanderers FC's games and 50% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of HFX Wanderers FC's matches and 62% of FC Edmonton's.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as HFX Wanderers FC edge out FC Edmonton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat FC Edmonton 1-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.61 xG and FC Edmonton 1.28 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Edmonton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.26 against FC Edmonton attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 44% | Draw 26% | FC Edmonton 30%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 44%, FC Edmonton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.22 PPG, FC Edmonton 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.