Cavalry FC 0-2 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 35%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to IG Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 12 July 2021 at 02:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cavalry FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cavalry FC at IG Field this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 1W 0D 3L across 4 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 0.75 points per game. Last five: W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Atlético Ottawa have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Atlético Ottawa (1.75 vs 0.75) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 50% versus Atlético Ottawa 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cavalry FC 50% | Atlético Ottawa 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.86 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.737 / defence 1.249 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.773 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 0.949. Cavalry FC's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Cavalry FC games / 4 Atlético Ottawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 32% | Draw 33% | Atlético Ottawa 35%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Atlético Ottawa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cavalry FC's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 33% | Atlético Ottawa 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Monday 12 Jul 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 32% | Draw 33% | Atlético Ottawa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Cavalry FC 0.86 / Atlético Ottawa 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.737 / def 1.249 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.773 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.056 / away 0.949 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Atlético Ottawa xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 02:00 on Monday 12 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 0 - 2 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 32% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (0.74) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (0.77x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
32%
3.14
33%
3.02
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
1.77
0.92
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.92 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Cavalry FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 0.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atlético Ottawa in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Early Season
Atlético Ottawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, Atlético Ottawa 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cavalry FC) and 25% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Atlético Ottawa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 25% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 25% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 0-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.86 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.92 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against Atlético Ottawa attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 32% | Draw 33% | Atlético Ottawa 35%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 50%, Atlético Ottawa 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.