RB Bragantino 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as RB Bragantino take on Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palmeiras — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Palmeiras's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, RB Bragantino have won 2, Palmeiras 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 53% versus Palmeiras 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 43% | Palmeiras 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 0.94 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.964 / defence 0.883 | Palmeiras attack 1.300 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 0.829. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 0.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 RB Bragantino games / 46 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 33% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 33%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Palmeiras 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. This conflicts with form data: RB Bragantino 70% | Palmeiras 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 33% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG RB Bragantino 0.94 / Palmeiras 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.964 / def 0.883 | Palmeiras attack 1.300 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.434 / away 0.829 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Palmeiras xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
RB Bragantino 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras part of?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 33% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both RB Bragantino and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
Record (7 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 3 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 0.96x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
34%
2.94
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
1.90
0.95
Palmeiras xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.95 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 27W 25D 24L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 42W 17D 17L from 76 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RB Bragantino.
Venue Form
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.82 PPG from 38 outings (19W 12D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 13D 9L from 38 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.63 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 27W 25D 24L in their last 76 games (1.39 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 17L in their last 76 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Palmeiras away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.82 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.61 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2025, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 53%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (RB Bragantino) and 42% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 42% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Palmeiras tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out RB Bragantino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 0.94 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Palmeiras attack 1.30 / defence 0.68, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 33% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 43%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.