Mirassol 3-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mirassol host Internacional at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 October 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mirassol — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's home record at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mirassol, 0 for Internacional and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mirassol in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Internacional in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mirassol 63% and Internacional 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 44% | Internacional 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.91 xG and Internacional 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.150 / defence 1.004 | Internacional attack 1.063 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.035. Data: 27 Mirassol games / 64 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 56% | Draw 22% | Internacional 22%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Internacional 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Internacional 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 56% | Draw 22% | Internacional 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Mirassol 1.91 / Internacional 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.150 / def 1.004 | Internacional attack 1.063 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Internacional xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Internacional kick off?
Mirassol vs Internacional kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 16 October 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Internacional?
Mirassol 3 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Mirassol vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Internacional part of?
Mirassol vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 56% chance of winning, Internacional a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mirassol and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Internacional in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Internacional (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.51
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.02
1.10
Internacional xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
3%
31.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.10 for Internacional, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Internacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mirassol's recent record stands at 12W 10D 5L from 27 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 11L across 27 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mirassol by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Internacional heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 8W 5D 0L from 13 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Internacional's away record stands at 2W 5D 6L across 13 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mirassol are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Internacional in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Internacional in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 12W 10D 5L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Internacional have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Internacional away?
Mirassol's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.23 PPG; Internacional away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mirassol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Internacional?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Internacional have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Internacional 1-2 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Internacional?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mirassol at 77%, Internacional at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mirassol) and 54% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Internacional in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Internacional?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Mirassol's games and 69% of Internacional's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mirassol's recent games and 54% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Internacional tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Internacional in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Internacional.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Internacional 3-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.91 xG and Internacional 1.10 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against Internacional attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 56% | Draw 22% | Internacional 22%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 44%, Internacional 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Internacional's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.