Gremio 2-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena do Grêmio plays host to Gremio versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 2L across 6 games at Arena do Grêmio this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Gremio, 0.20 for Chapecoense-sc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 25% versus Chapecoense-sc 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 17% | Chapecoense-sc 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.82 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.671 / defence 1.017 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.878 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.074. Gremio's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Gremio games / 14 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 37%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Chapecoense-sc 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gremio's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chapecoense-sc are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 33% | Chapecoense-sc 86%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Gremio 0.82 / Chapecoense-sc 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.671 / def 1.017 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.878 / def 1.437 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chapecoense-sc xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 10 August 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio 2 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 30% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gremio and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc in?
Gremio (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.88x) against Gremio's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 12/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
30%
3.36
33%
3.03
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.78
0.96
Chapecoense-sc xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 16.2 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Gremio and 0.96 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gremio's recent record stands at 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 8L across 12 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.58 PPG for Gremio against 0.33 for Chapecoense-sc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 0W 4D 2L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chapecoense-sc's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.83 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 8L in their last 12 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Gremio's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 0.67 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gremio
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
From 4 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 33%, Chapecoense-sc 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Gremio and 50% for Chapecoense-sc.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Gremio's games and 83% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Gremio's recent games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.82 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.96 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.67 / defence 1.02 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.88 / defence 1.44, drawn from 12/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 37%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 17%, Chapecoense-sc 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 0.58 PPG, Chapecoense-sc 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.