Fluminense 2-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc meet at Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense at Estádio do Maracanã this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.03 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.182 / defence 0.953 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.615 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.021. Data: 50 Fluminense games / 11 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 71% | Draw 19% | Chapecoense-sc 10%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Chapecoense-sc 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 71% | Draw 19% | Chapecoense-sc 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 39% | xG Fluminense 2.03 / Chapecoense-sc 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.182 / def 0.953 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.615 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Chapecoense-sc xG
39%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 71% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (2 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc in?
Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fluminense home split: 2.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.20 | CS 8.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.61x) against Fluminense's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 50/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.25
10%
10.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.63
0.60
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
10.16
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
39%
2.56
1%
77.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.9 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.60 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fluminense have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Fluminense
0
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Fluminense 2-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Chapecoense-sc?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Chapecoense-sc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.03 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.60 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.18 / defence 0.95 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.61 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 71% | Draw 19% | Chapecoense-sc 10%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.