Flamengo 1-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 28 as Flamengo welcome Atletico Paranaense to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Monday 30 September 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Flamengo, 3 for Atletico Paranaense and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 60% versus Atletico Paranaense 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 54% | Atletico Paranaense 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.24 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.053 / defence 1.023 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.926 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.000. Data: 64 Flamengo games / 63 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 28%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Paranaense 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Flamengo 90% | Atletico Paranaense 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Flamengo 1.24 / Atletico Paranaense 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.053 / def 1.023 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.926 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Atletico Paranaense xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 43% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (7 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 2 | Atletico Paranaense 3W.
What form are Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.46
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.19
0.95
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.95 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 31W 15D 17L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 22W 21D 20L from 63 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.71 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.90 PPG from 31 outings (17W 8D 6L).
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 10D 13L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.24 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Flamengo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 31W 15D 17L in their last 63 games (1.71 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 21D 20L in their last 63 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Flamengo's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.90 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Flamengo
3
Draws
3
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 3, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 55%, Atletico Paranaense 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Flamengo) and 32% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Flamengo's recent matches and 48% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Flamengo's recent games and 32% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Atletico Paranaense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.24 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.95 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Paranaense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 28%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 54%, Atletico Paranaense 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.71 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.